Lay-zy Dogs System Review
Lay-zy Dogs System Review
There are seven Lay-zy Dog rules to apply which focus on finding the combination of poor trap draw and likely poor performance of the dog in that trap. The rules take a little bit of getting used to but once you have done a few selections it does become easier. In fact I found myself operating the rules in a slightly different order due to how the data appeared on the websites.
In terms of what do you need to run Lay-zy dogs? You need access to the Internet and two websites, The Greyhound Breeding and Racing Database and The Racing Post, both of which are free to access. Because there are many races to look through, I found it useful to use my printer to produce a hardcopy of the meeting (not individual races) . In this way I could mark off whether a meeting qualified for selection or not.
Personally I would also recommend a betting bot if you cannot, or do not want to be sat at in front of the computer all day. Lay-zy Dogs selections can be made the evening before, or on the morning of, the day’s racing. Therefore it is simple enough to load them into your bot in the morning and fire it up.
Matt Houghton, author of Lay-zy Dogs, does address the little concern I have with any laying greyhound system, which is the issue of liquidity an liability. The liquidity of the markets is not good, therefore it can lead to some serious liability, which is reflected by the limit placed on the lay bets of 11.0. However, Matt keeps the losses to a minimum by advising staking to liability and specifically suggesting laying to a liability of 5% of your bank. Although if you feel this is too adventurous, or not adventurous enough, you can adjust your stake accordingly.
As for our approach to the Lay-zy Dogs review? We started off by selecting two or three cards at random and make the selections from those cards. However, it soon became apparent that this was not a real test of the system. Therefore after a couple of days, we reverted to selecting from the entire day’s racing. We began with a betting bank of £1,000 and stake to 5% liability as suggested in the manual. The selections will be monitored via paper trading on a betting bot to determine the lay odds available. The Lay-zy Dogs ’virtual bets’ will be placed in the 20 seconds before the scheduled race start.
I have included the Industry SP in the results purely for comparison purposes only. They play NO part in any of the bet calculations. It will be interesting to see how the exchange odds differ from the bookie prices.
At the end of our 45 OnlineBettingExposed review of Lay-zy Dogs, how did our canine sports friends fare?
Well, I have to conclude…not very well. Let’s examine the statistics and the facts.
- Number of betting days: 45
- Lay-zy Dogs Gross Loss: -£44.45
- Lay-zy Dogs Net Loss: -£81.45 (including cost of system)
- Lay-zy Dogs ROI: -15%
- Lay-zy Dogs Strike Rate: 86.1%
- Average Odds: 7.51
- Average no of races per day: 27
- Average qualifying races per day: 16
- Betfair odds exceeded ISP by 1,000%: twice
- Betfair odds exceeded ISP by 500%: 10 times
- Betfair odds exceeded ISP by 100%: 175 times
So, what do these statistic tell us? Well, initially the Lay-zy Dogs system did not make a profit on its recommended staking strategy, which is always a bad start. An £81 loss is not good in anybody’s language.
The strike rate of 86.1% sounds, on the face of it, a pretty good achievement. So we have to look at the odds that we encountered to understand why Lay-zy Dogs didn’t make a profit. At an average odds of 7.51, the recommended staking strategy of laying to liability, just wasn’t making enough to cover the losing bets. When you are talking about an AVERAGE of 7.51, there will be plenty of odds in the mix of 8,9,10 and 11. In fact, we found that over 36% of the time, qualifying races had odds in the top quartile of the odds range (i.e. between 8.25 and 11.00). This means that Lay-zy Dogs is making peanuts whilst waiting for its next loss.
While looking at the odds achieved for Lay-zy Dogs, we must also make note of the difference between the Betfair odds achieved 20 seconds before the off and the Bookie SP. Why? Because this is a clear indication of the liquidity in the market. Although the bookies may be willing to give decent odds to attract your money, you have to turn to a betting exchange, such as Betfair, to accommodate lay betting. So while a decent back price of 5/1 or 6/1 may be available at ‘Corner Shop Turf Accountants’, lay odds of 15.0 may be all that is available on the exchange.
Now you might say, well that is fine, Lay-zy Dogs is filtering these out. But it is not filtering out a poor betting opportunity, it is more a measure of how many people are in front of a screen putting their money up. We saw in the detailed results how one meeting with a decent set of ISP can have qualifying races on the exchange, whilst another meeting can have odds that are a million miles away on the exchange. Therefore it is obvious that other factors enter into moving the odds into the qualifying range including: whether the track is a popular track; whether the meeting is at an accessible time of the day (i.e. it’s not lunch time or fetch the kids from school time); and, even as far as whether people have popped out to put the kettle on. That is no joke, when the odds can be moved several points by one or two people, that is an market with poor liquidity.
Let’s move on to the amount of effort involved to operate the Lay-zy Dogs system. Going through all of the meetings every day, we found that there were an average of 27 potential qualifying races per day. On a Friday and Saturday there could be approaching 40. Now we think we got the selection process down pretty slick, including selecting the races, analysing the race card of the selected races, recording the selection, entering the selection into the betting bot (yes this is important) and recording the final results. As a reasonably conservative estimate, we reckon you can count on 3 minutes per race. So at 27 races per day, you will be spending on average very nearly one and a half hours per day running Lay-zy Dogs. Oh…it will be far more until you get used to the system. Now it should be no problem that you spend time on a system, but it must return you a profit…. and a good one at that. So minus marks for Lay-zy Dogs on this point.
To try to put a brave face on things, we did try our best to find a positive side to Lay-zy Dogs. That positive side MIGHT be an alternative staking strategy. We did monitor the system to level £10 stakes and 5% stakes. Whilst the latter still made a loss, level stakes did make a £136 profit, but there is a but….A BIG BUT. Again it comes back to the long odds frequently encountered by the system. One level stake loss with odds of 10.0 will virtually wipe that profit out, but two will obliterate it. Before you ask, yes this did happen more than once. Therefore, level stakes can possibly give you decent rewards, but you have to have a cast iron constitution to withstand the sudden transitions from healthy profit to loss, then to big loss.
As a one last point of note, the final graph of the Lay-zy Dogs profits gives a visual representation of the roller coaster nature of the system. Apart from the early days of the review, there wasn’t another period that we felt ‘safe’ and profits would stabilise.
So, because of the lack of profit, the lack of liquidity in the Lay-zy Dogs markets, the inordinate amount of work required to operate the system and the amount of valium that is required to calm the nerves…. Lay-zy Dogs is an out and out failed system.