Favourites2Lay System Review
Favourites2Lay System Review
Googling the interweb for comments about product and services from Paul Fowlie returns somewhat of a mixed bag. But never being one to judge a book by its cover, always assume innocence until proven guilty, I’m out to see if the sales hype on Favourites2Lay is all bark with no bite. Hopefully, in buying this system a fool is not easily parted from his (or her) money. Having managed to get as many cliches into the start as possible, let’s get on with looking at what you get for your money with Favourites2Lay .
Well, you will need to part with £95 to purchase this system and you will recieve one page. Yes,that’s right…. ONE Page. Or put it another way the number of pages in the document is greater than zero and less than two. I actually find this very refreshing. When we part with our hard earned cash for a system, there are very few of us who are looking for yet another Betfair tutorial, or an explanation into the differences between back and lay betting. We can find that anywhere on the internet. What do we want? System Rules! When do we want it? NOW!
In the Favourites2Lay document you get:
- The detailed rules All 9 rules are very simple, easy to understand and easy to execute.
- A brief expalnation as to why the system works, which is by targeting a category of race that should select value lays.
- A summary of the rules. Useful, but not really necessary as the rules are quite clear.
Having said that we should not need to be told the bl**din’ obvious, I would say that a comment to the effect that the rules use Racing Post data would be useful. Online access is perfectly OK, although you will need a subscription to access the information for the system.
The system can be used on all race types in the UK only, so no Irish mettings. According to the sales page, Favourites2Lay is a low liability laying system with the average lay being 3.07 on Betfair and the average losing bet 2.44, although be warned you could be laying as high as 8.0 (the figures quoted are averages). There should be an average of two and a half bets per day, so there should be enough betting activity to keep most people happy. As the name of the system implies, you will be laying favourites, therefore bets need to be placed as near to the off as possible to ensure that you are catching the true Betfair favourite (not industry favourite).
The review will be run for 45 days with all bets being placed to £10 level stakes. The author recommends a 30 point betting bank, therefore the review will start with a £300 bank. Each day’s selections will be listed to Betfair SP and will assume Betfair commision of 5%.
So what did Favourites2Lay have in store for us over the 45 day review period?
Favourites2Lay Summary Results
Total Review Days: 45
Total Racing Days: 34
Total Number of Bets: 96
Average No. of Bets Per Day: 2.13
Total Winning Bets: 59
Strike Rate: 61.5%
Maximum Losing Run: 4 races (twice)
Maximum Winning Run: 12 races (once)
Total Profit: £72.50
Total Costs During Review:
£95 (system cost)
£29.50 (Betfair commission costs)
Net Loss: -£52.00
To be honest it felt like a big anti-climax. The Favourites2Lay sales pitch builds you up and the system even started with a matching burst of success, but then it seemed to slowly let you down deflating the air out of the early profits. As the final graph shows, it wasn’t a short sharp process, but an ever-so slow, dragging it out affair. Favourites2Lay repeatedly gave out little rays of hope only to keep taking it away from you over and over again. At the end of the day, the system didn’t even make the cost of the system.
As Favourites2Lay started off, it looked as though this could be a twenty points per month system quite easily. But as you can see from the graph, as the review progressed, it probably just about made the five points per month mark.
I find the premise on which Favourites2Lay is claimed to work to be a little ‘old hat’ compared with today’s successful systems. It is not based on firm statistical analysis, more on an ‘emotional’ supposition that trainers fancy their chances in this type of race. I can see from the historical results that Favourites2Lay has worked in the past, but the dips in the results show that it hasn’t worked all of the time. But there again, I have yet to find a system that does.
Something that might interest readers of this review is that Paul Fowlie, the author of Favourites2Lay, contacted the review team towards the end of the review and asked for the review to be pulled from the website. The reason? In his own words “This month it is struggling a bit….. you will no doubt give it the thumbs down”. I will say no more and allow you, dear reader, to make of this what you will.
So after finding all of the negatives about the review, why am I finding myself reluctant to turn Favourites2Lay down point blank? Well, for this I have to refer back to the historical results. Due to the nature of the system, it is impossible to back check the results because you cannot determine qualifying races. However, on the basis that the results are accurate, in the 7 months from 1st June 2010 to the end of 2010, Favourites2Lay made over 93 points. Not only that, but to early February 2011, it had made a further 26 points.
Whether or not you believe in the principles of Favourites2Lay or not, the results are quite good. But only having the results for nine months of its operation, it is not prudent to say whether its performance is sustainable.
Therefore, I am going to hedge my bets with this one and place Favourites2Lay on the “Neutral” pile, leaving you, the reader to make the final judgement.