Four The Win
There are laying systems in abundance these days. Some are good, some not so good, but every now and again you come across one that turns out to be absolutely exceptional and that’s exactly what happened to us this month.
When I first discovered Four The Win I was instantly impressed with both the simplicity of the system and the fact that it concentrates on hot favourites whose average odds are just 1/1. On top of that it takes just 10 minutes a day to find the selections, so straight away I could see we had an easily operated, potentially profitable, system on our hands.
This is what I had to say about it prior to starting our test:
I’m a big fan of the old ”Keep It Simple Stupid” adage when it comes to horse racing systems, because if a system has too many rules it’s almost certainly been backfitted and if this is the case, it’s highly unlikely that what happened in the past will continue to prove profitable in the future.
That’s a cold hard fact I’m afraid, so if you ever purchase a system and find that it’s practically unworkable in practice because of the number of rules involved, do yourself a favour and treat it with extreme caution. In the vast majority of cases it will save you time, effort and expense.
Someone who agrees with me on this is Joe from Four The Win.
Joe’s created a horse racing laying system that’s based on solid form-based principles, that’s simple in the extreme and that targets runners at the bottom end of the odds range, so unlike many of the laying systems I see nowadays, the odd winner here or there is never going to wipe out your betting bank. It’s a very selective system that quite simply highlights runners with a weak profile in races that are competitive enough to warrant taking them on.
This is exactly how bookmakers operate and if it’s your goal to succeed as a betting exchange layer, you could do worse than follow the time-proven principles of traditional bookmaking.
Joe’s system comes packaged in a short, well-written, 16 page ebook that explains everything you need to know clearly and concisely. You’ll know exactly what your selections are likely to be the evening before racing and the rules of the system are all very straightforward.
I’ll be testing Four The Win for the next month with a £1000 starting bank and I’ll be aiming to win £25 on each bet, using a non-aggressive version of the Fibonacci staking plan (as is advised in the book) to recoup losses from winning bets.
We then tested Four The Win for the full month of March (you can check the full results here) and to say we were impressed with what happened would be an understatement!
This is what Craig said when he wrote his final review:
Well, we’ve come to the end of the road for our months test of Four The Win and it’s been a fascinating month. When I first saw the system I was a little sceptical. There are only four simple rules to be followed, and although I could see the logic behind the system, I was a little apprehensive that the system would work at the prices we were laying at. Include a loss recovery staking plan and I had visions of money going down the tube – oh how wrong was I???
I have been astounded by the performance of Four The Win, and I do mean absolutely astounded. In the 30 days of testing we made 16 points profit, and when you consider the average odds we were laying at were evens, and that a large amount of selections were actually odds on, that is simply amazing. We returned a 41.5% profit on our bank, which is a huge ROI and again at the odds is, quite simply, outstanding!
Bare in mind that this is a system that will take you ten minutes a day to find your selections and you have what must be one of the most simple, straightforward, yet ultimately rewarding systems I have seen.
It’s no secret that I’m a big fan of laying, and some of the systems I’ve used in the past have had good success laying at the higher end of the odds market, but at that end you will be laying over the odds and a winner can cause a bit of a dent in your profits, but with Four The Win the odds are almost always within a couple of percent of official SP and often will beat SP because its all hot, hot favourites we’re laying.
So, to sum up, Four The Win is a laying system that lays at an average price of evens, uses a sensible loss recovery plan (which only twice did we go as far as the 3rd bet), has a strike rate in the region of 70% (meaning it will profit at level stakes) and is incredibly easy to operate. Add in the fact that Joe has provided us with excellent customer service, offers a tipping email service, and was only too willing to answer any of our queries and I have no choice but to give Four The Win….
…..FIVE OUT OF FIVE!
Now, some of you might look at the 16 points profit we generated and not be overly impressed with that, but in terms of return on investment this has exceeded everything we’ve ever reviewed on here multiple times over. Keep in mind that many laying systems target runners at 5/1, 6/1, or even 8/1, so your liabilities are 5x, 6x, or 8x higher than with Four The Win. This means that if you were operating on a liability basis you could effectively use 5x, 6x, or 8x larger stakes and when you look at it that way, the returns from this system are absolutely HUGE!
I can honestly say that I haven’t come across anything as appealing as this before. It pinpoints short priced favourites who lose with amazing accuracy and takes just 10 minutes a day to find them, so if you’ve been searching for something that’s extremely easy to operate, profitable in the extreme, and that won’t have you quaking in your boots every time one of your lay bets goes and wins, then look no further than Four The Win.
This one is the business – I love it!
Hi everyone, it’s Joe from FTW. I’m back from hols and won’t have much time to
write here until tomorrow so I’ll be quick…
@ NH – The four in a row loss I refer to is for FTW1 where it only happened
once in 2 years. This is not for FTW2 which is currently available.
@ MC – Your figures are interesting and by using your figures and doing some
quick maths have resulted in the following assuming £100 Fibonacci stakes with
5% Betfair commission. Don’t forget we do not go higher than the 5point stake
in the fibonacci sequence so the 6 winners and 7 winners would not be
continuous losses from the fib sequence and would results in a further 1, 2,
3, or 4 winner for those figures profit (hence why I have removed them here):
1 winner in a row 72 times = £95*72 = £6840
2 winners 34 times = £190*34 = £6460
3 winners 16 times = £285*16 = £4560
4 winners 7 times = £475*7 = £3325
5 winners 3 times = (11 point loss depends on odds matched however for example
sake using 14 point loss) = -£1400*3 = -£4200
11 winners 1 time = -£1400*1 = -£1400
Total therefore is £15,585 profit. Obviously this would vary depending on the
odds that were matched but gives some valadity of the longer term profits.
Hi Joe,
Your figures hav’nt taken into account the sums lost on the losing bets, for example with one winner showing up you would already have lost 100 (assuming the odds were 2.0) on that. Your next bet would be 200 which wins 190 after 5% commission, take off the 100 loss which makes a profit of 90.
90 X 72 = + 6480 profit
With two winners on the trot you would lose 100 on the first & 200 on the second (again assuming odds at 2.0) total -300
Your next bet would be 300 which wins giving you 300 – 5% commission =285 so you have now made a loss on this sequence of 15 pounds.
15 X 34 = 510 loss
If you do this calculation through the whole of the example given this gives you a total loss of 6820.
Jacq
All,
It does appear this thread has been overtaken by comments on FTW2 rather than FTW1, if the mod’s do not want anymore posting, by all means please delete this.
In looking at the Adrian Massey site you have to be carefull to remove all the selection that dont meet the criteria, as you cannot do this by default on the website, i.e. No of runners, prices etc.
Anyway long story short I popped it all in an excel spreadsheet and filtered everything out, run results from 2007 to present.
£-861 to level stakes (£100)
£-7705 to advised progresive stakes
Anyone wants to check my spreadsheet, let me know, more than happy to send it on.
Cheers
Mark
Mark
Good for a change to see someone really get down to it and do their factual research. I have seen similar results off using different database.
However my question is:
Where are the stats showing that the long term data from fillies only (without any other criteria such as race type,etc) within this system price range are sufficiently bias to overcome the betfair deficit?
Its also pretty easy to produce selective data showing quite the opposite for fillies!
I have never seen the data or heard mention of it in support of the system.
@ Jacq – Yes you are quite right and I feel stupid for not including the losing selections in my results. In my post holiday daze I seemed to have forgotten that rather important point!
I will check the past results myself when I get a chance for FTW2.
I am updating the FTW2 manual this week with an aim to increase the strike rate and therefore lower the chance odds of 4 race losing runs. May I just add in my defense that I have run a less selective version of FTW 2 since the beginning of this year (which led to me releasing FTW2) which has a 4 race losing run about once a month. However the short winning streaks and number of selections have ensured continous profit since then. Therefore with a more selective process (as is FTW2) I expect a more profitable system with FTW2.
FTW1 continues to profit and has done for a couple of years. This is also not fool proof (and no system is) as we recently had a losing run on that too in April, however long term profits have been generated every month bar one with FTW1.
In addition the FTW Football system earnt me over £21,000 this season.
I have trust in and use these systems myself with real money, real loses and real profits. I have faith in each of them and my aim is to help cusomers make money with them too. I would not release any material if I knew this would not be the case and will strive to ensure FTW2 is tweaked until customers are happy with it. Up until I went away (11th May) it was showing profit of over £2000. I appreciate that I have missed a bad run while on holiday and was fortunate myself to have misses it, though I still would have faith in it if I were matched on those losing bets.
Joe,
Look forward to seeing the said improvements/tweaks on the current FTW2 it does show a commitment to your product, and I’m sure the website will be updated in due coarse.
I think you will find that my research on the historical results are quite accurate, If you would like me to pass them on for your comparison please let me know.
I alao agree that the FTW Football is without doubt profitable, although the figures quoted are to stakes most people would find unpalatable.
Also a shame we dont have a forum to discuss the FTW series officially, im sure we could learn a lot from each other.
Thanks for your time, speak soon.
Cheers
Mark
Hi Joe,
Just want to say how much I appreciate the fact that you are willing to come and post on this forum. I don’t think there are many system sellers out there who would.
Regards
MC
@ Mark – Yes I am committed to the systems and of course to my customers making money. I do believe your results and may take you up on your offer to check them over when I have a bit more time! I also ran past results through the database and ended up with differing results to yours so I am not 100% convinced of the accuracy of the database, having said that it would be easy for one of us to use a different parameter and therefore end up with varying results. I hope you will look forward to the tweaked version in the future and profit from it nicely.
You are right about the FTW Football stakes. To achieve that profit I did need large stakes and I can never bring myself to watch the games! However if your bank is built up of winnings rather than earnings it is certainly easier to cope with. Even with 10% of those stakes which I’m sure most people could use, it is £2100 profit per season for very, very little work.
Thanks Mark.
@ MC – Thanks for your comment and in return appreciate your appreciation!
Just picking up MC’s idea about the forum. I’m sure that many of us would be interested and it could be one more way for Joe to advertise his products. Would it be hard to set one up? Sharing ideas and updating results in real time would probably benefit the system. On the other hand, would there be a real risk to have too many people using it so affecting the odds in the end? Have you already evaluated this, Joe?
Joe,
All good stuff to hear and I look forward to receiving the next edition of FTWF which I will be giving a go to the £100 mark. I do agree that over £2k for the small amount of work is fantastic, and apologise if I came across as anything other than supportive.
Cheers
Mark
@ Lynn – Funnily enough I was looking into a forum earlier in the year and only got so far before I decided against it. However seeing as there are many users now of both FTW’s it may be worthwhile persuing again, especially in the light of future developments that you are unaware of!
I did have a customer who was technically minded request that they set this up for me and have a portal where customers can talk in real time as well as sharing their real time screens with other users etc. I may get back in touch with them and see what they say. In the mean time atleast we have this excellent site to communicate!
@ Mark – I didn’t think you were coming across unsupportive mate! It’s always good to hear peoples opinions, success, strategies etc and the best way to help me get feedback to improve the service for all of us. Thanks for your input!
I will be adding the 2008/09 FTWF teams in the next month or so to the updated ebook that you will be sent automatically. An additional point for next year also is the change of stake for the first few and last few games of the season. These are traditionally very unpredictable and I will alter to use 50% lower stakes for these as it is usually those times of the season we have a few upsets and prevents the profits from being higher than they are.
Cheers!
Can anyone say how both systems are performing? I stopped using FTW2 because of its several losing strikes too close to each other, to wait for the update to the system by Joe. I was curious to know how other people are getting on with them. Thank you
Just check the results page on the Four The Win website Lynn….. it’s all there.
Paul,
Well I’m sorry but I’m afraid it certainly isn’t “all there”.
I can see quite a few omissions even on the days where results have been posted for. And to miss out all selections from the 10th. May to the 20th….well.
As most people know this was a very, very poor period for the system.
It’s simply not good enough to say well Joe was on holiday then so that doesn’t count.
To give the full picture I’m sure members who have been following the system could have been contacted for the results during this period. There may be a few instances where opinions differ & some got prices where others didn’t but the one’s where there was agreement could have been used.
To be honest reading the results as given & comparing with my own gives me no confidence whatsoever in the past results claimed…..What do others think ?
Jacq
Hi Jacq,
Sorry, all I did this morning was look at the results page and check the last date. I see what you mean now.
I can confirm that the results from FTW1 were always correct when it was available, but since it was taken off the market I haven’t paid any attention to what’s on the results page. No-one can buy it any longer so it’s kind of irrelevant now.
And I can’t speak for FTW2 as I’ve never used it. We’ve never tested or reviewed it, so I couldn’t even tell you what the rules are….
~ Paul
@ All the people filling my inbox with hate mail!
I did think long and hard about the results page for the FTW’s and decided that I would continue using my results as I have done from the start. I have said a million times that the results are those I was matched on at the odds I was matched, win or lose. I infact have done exactly nothing different to what I’ve always done (I missed a period in December for example where the results were good) but because the results were not favourable this time people are giving me grief for it. If the results were good I’m sure no-one would be compaining that the period between 10th – 20th was missing.
I know I was fortunate to miss out on a losing streak while I was away but if every horse was a winning bet I would likely have still left it. A problem also is that even if I borrow someones results they are still going to be different to others and still people will complain so I decided to use my own as usual. If you could see the messages in my inbox you will soon begin to realise this fact. I’ve had people requesting a refund for FTW football – WHICH IS FREE! That made £21k last season.
Anyway I’m going off in a tangent now and my blood is boiling. I have been making a living from the systems I share with people and quit my job in 2007. To make sure you succeed you have to take the losses on the chin and the wins will come, don’t forget rule number one – don’t bet what you can’t afford. For those of you who are so short sighted and send me hate mail after one days betting please give up this game alltogether you are not cut out for it. For those FTW2 customers who are unhappy, if you like I will send you FTW1 for free – email me your receipt and a message saying so and I’ll forward it to you.
If someone wants to take the liberty of collating everyones results for FTW1 and FTW2 and work out an average to put on the site then I will happily upload them to the results but I certainly havent got time to do it myself.
Joe
Sadley as Jacq stated it is not acceptable, I was unavailable to bet on the 18th and 19th, but from the 11th to the 17th the my results were….
£-2203
Basically wiping out the profit shown on the website and then some, I think it has been agreed on here that there was a two four running loss (£-2200)
I will email Joe my spreadsheet and urge others to do the same.
The historical stats do not add up, but we will see how it goes.
It is a shame Joe seems to have enough time to send mail shots for more systems but not enough time to update the website correctly.
I’m sure he will remedy this in due coarse, once he has received all the results from his customers.
Cheers
Mark
Joe,
The people who are abusing you and requesting a refund are unfortunatley very short sighted, and I imagine you are rightly miffed at these people, I think I am hopefully one of many who doesn’t really care for a refund, you pays your money you take the risk! nor does loosing a few quid matter.
What I think is very fair is as you said to update the website correctly, and you deserve credit for that, so if anyone one like to send me DETAILED results from the dates missing I will gladley compare them with my own and take the averages for you.
gmarkg123@googlemail.com
Cheers
Mark
@ Joe – if you intend to keep the results online you probably should update them, because it isn’t good to have them there when they’re missing two weeks or whatever.
However, in Joe’s defence, I’ve got to say that from all of the system vendors we’ve dealt with since starting this site Joe has been the most honest, the friendliest by far, and without a doubt the most conscientious when it comes to his customers. He’s actually been playing down his results (when so many others do the opposite) over and over again in the time we’ve dealt with him. There has been numerous times when a potential selection – that got beat – didn’t show up in his results even though Craig and I both got matched, but when we questioned Joe about it he told us that he wasn’t sure everyone would have been on it so he didn’t include it.
You know, it’s rare – almost unheard of – for that to happen, so I wouldn’t beat him up about the fact that the last couple of weeks haven’t been so good. The average odds of the selections is only about 1/1 so you’ve got to expect runs where it isn’t going to work in your favour. That’s just life and in the long run I think he’s got a solid little system for pointing you in the direction of (very) short-priced favourites who simply shouldn’t be backed. That fact alone (and you should read between the lines of what I just said there) makes it a worthwhile addition to your betting portfolio.
To be honest Joe, now that FTW1 is no longer available I would just remove any reference to it from your site. There isn’t any point in keeping it there now when it’s no longer for sale….
I’ll second what Mark and Paul have said about this. You’ve always been friendly to deal with Joe and transparent about your systems, I wouldn’t let the mockers get you down.
I prematurely increased my stakes to £150 soon after starting using the first version of Four The Win after making a great profit in my first 2 or 3 weeks. I’ve taken a few knocks since but a lot of the winners have been heavy odds-on so it doesn’t concern me greatly. My logic is that if I can make even 25% or 30% of what’s happened in the last 6 months the £40 I invested in your system will be still be worth many times more than that every month. I think that’s easily achievable.
On the subject of betting portfolios, for the last three years I’ve operated a portfolio of about a dozen systems, some months they all perform well and I make the proverbial fortune, other months only a few do and I make a decent profit. Only on two occasions in the last three years have I had losing months by taking the portfolio approach, even when some systems have had terrible months, but I take a longterm view with each of them, whereas many people appear to take a very short term view. If you buy a system you should be prepared to run it for at least 6 months using the recommended staking and bank, doing it for a week, or a few days won’t tell you anything about anything.
I read a post on another horse racing forum this week from someone who purchased a system, one I use, and requested a refund after TWO DAYS because “it didn’t work”!!! I’ve been averaging 8 points profit a month from this system for the last two years and it’s consistent as hell, making me about £800 clear a month, every month, but you don’t make money every day with it. If you’re going to judge a system after two days results, two weeks, or even two months, you shouldn’t be buying systems, full stop.
My advice for anyone who is feeling frustrated is to start building a portfolio and operate them in the same way you would a shares portfolio. When you do that a bad month from one system doesn’t hurt you, because the others generally make up the deficit. It’s rare that nothing performs, no matter what you use. This is the professional way to do it and in my eyes it’s the only way you’ll make the transition from a wannabe to a full-time backer/layer. When anyone asks what I do now I tell them I’m a trader. My friends all think it’s amazing that I don’t have to work for a living but I do work – I buy and sell prices on horse racing markets like I used to do on the FTSE. It’s the same thing, with different products.
Anyone can do this but you have to be prepared to set up your “working capital” and leave it for that use only. You then need to build your portfolio and stick with it. Take stock of how you’re doing on a monthly basis but don’t go into panic mode if the stuff hits the fan one month, what you’re looking for is a natural progression over a period of time. If you’re starting with a few hundred or a thousand you need to know that going full-time won’t happen instantly but it can happen if you stay focused.
That’s enough rabbling for one night. I just wanted to add some support to Joe and offer some advice for those of you who have been worrying about a couple of weeks results. The moral of the story is that if you’re ever feeling like you’re in a desperate position after a few days or weeks of using something then a change of career, or a new hobby, would be advisable.
Yep, well said Jeremy, I am also of the school that you can never have enough information and take the good times and the bad times.
I have a huge amount of sympathy for people like Joe who are GENUINE and sell their systems with support, sure he’s making money but there are some people who do that and then give no support or even reply to questions.
To give people an idea, I have been laying horse successfully since the beginning of 2004, however around December 05 January 06 the bank lost around 40points! When you lose that amount in a short period you begin to wonder, but patience and time is the key to any successful system, the bank recovered over the next few months and I have a ROI of around 7.9% on a 500k turnover.
But based on the above, if I were to sell the system it would all come crashing down with idiots complaining when there is a downturn!
Another point which has been said many times on this site is to keep meticulous records, only then can you track progress, It’s not hard but some people just don’t bother and then when they hit a losing run, they don’t have the benefit of looking into the past to see it is probably just a glitch on a path to profit.
Anyway chin up Joe I’m sure the bank will recover in the coming weeks/months, I just hope we can make people understand they need to look at the long term benefits.
Cheers
Mark
@ Jeremy, just interested, which systems do you use as part of your portfolio. The difficulty I have is knowing when a good system is having a glitch or whether the system just doesn’t work long term. How do you assess which is which?
Regards
MC
Hi Joe,
Don’t let them get you down! I for one really appreciate your integrity, and anyone who has had any dealings with you can see that you care about your product and your customers. I very much appreciate your generosity, too, with sharing your footy system (which I am looking forward to using next season!). I guess you could just see the unpleasant hatemail as another sort of long losing run in your career as a seller – and know that, in the long term, your good name will stand the test of time.
warmly,
MC
MC, perhaps Jeremy will be able to explain this better than me, but with systems you just ‘know’ when it’s a good system, and when it’s not. Really it comes with experience.
I feel everyone’s pain with FTW – I have lost a fair bit of cash myself with the recent run, but fair play to Joe, he has always said the results posted are HIS personal results and I don’t think he’d have taken the decision to leave the week he was away likely. He’d have known he’d be in for a barrage of abuse, but that’s the way he’s always done it so to change it would be wrong in my opinion. I haven’t and won’t stop using FTW because it makes perfect sense to me, and I’m sure this is just a bad patch.
Hi Craig,
I don’t t hink I know anything in this business! I think, being very new to it all, the best I can do is try and think of ways it won’t work and if they don’t convince me I go ahead, but I still struggle a lot with continuing through a losing patch. I can see why so few people do succeed at making money at this because it really is human nature to give up when it goes sour – and by it’s nature, betting goes through winining and losing cycles. Perhaps just knowing when a system is good comes with a lot of experience – which is why I find this site so invaluable.
Regards
MC
MC, that’s where so many people fail! A few bad days, a bad week, and maybe even a bad month and System X is binned and forgotten about. They then miss out when System X goes on to have 6 excellent months afterwards!
As I said, it will come with experience. What you are doing just now in trying to work an argument for a system not to work is a very good way to start it. Trust your own judgement on these things first and if you’re still unsure, come to us
Well for those that have persevered through the bad patch should now be gaining their rewards with the FTW systems.
FTW1 for both options are about £2000 up for June and FTW2 is having an incredible run [though I hope I have not just jinxed it!] at £1990 profit in June having won 19 from the last 24! Good times.
The bad runs we had in May were certainly freak runs that I had not had before, well for FTW1 anyway, obviously FTW2 doesn’t have much history…
Anybody else just bust out again on FTW1?
Just want to make sure I didn’t miss a bet somewhere…..
27th June 19:15 Chester Cornish Rose Lost
19:55 Newcastle Persian Pea Lost
28th June 20:15 Doncaster Caprivi Lost
29th June 15:05 Windsor Heaven Lost
Cheers
Mark
Hi Mark,
Yes me too,
I had Persian Sea on the 27th. then on the 28th.
My Aunt Fanny (Chest. 4.00)
Mrs Kipling, (Ling. 7.20)
Caprivi, (Donc. 8.15)
Heaven, (Wind. 3.05) on the 29th.
Still, looking on the bright side I’m still in profit (just) from the 29th. of last month.
Jacq
Thanks for the confirmation Jacq.
I’m slightly down on June, and had a very bad May as has been well documented.
I have no reason to doubt Joe’s previous results but I dont think this year is going to profit the same as previous years.
Shame….
Cheers
Mark
Yes,a 4 in a row bust.Again.That’s two in ten weeks on option A and three for option B.Thank God I’m not doing FTW2 .Since I began in early April, I’m well down,would have to dig out my records,but I agree.If I break even with this one for the remainder of the year I’ll be happy.His previous results look a bit pie-in-the-sky when you see how this has performed this year.I think we can forget the sales pitch on his main page for starters.Too many system sellers do this and I’m pig sick of it,to be honest.
And there has been far too many brown trouser moments too:three losses in a row going to the fourth bet – this has happened three or four times at least in the past few weeks.If these last gasp clawbacks had went the other way,resulting in another 4-in-a-row bust,we’d be in serious brown stuff.
His last posting on here claiming persevering customers have now reaped the rewards now looks tiresome to say the least.Looks like the waste bucket for this one,I’m afraid.
His much touted backing system which is almost ready for release? Lead balloon too, I think.
Its just not a good time for laying, i personally wont be betting this system until Aug, possibly Sept. P Pro
I dont know where to go now I have done x1 x1.5 x2 x3 x5 whats next. Could you really have 6 on the trot, I guess you could…..Is this system really good ??
Trader
Do you guys think this system would work on just level bets ??
Trader
Trader, I don’t think FTW would work out with level stakes, I think it’s the staking plan that makes this system, although I appreciate it’s not been great of late.
I’ve had a lot of other commitments lately and so haven’t been using it day to day, but I’ve been keeping an eye on Joe’s results, which did seem to pick up for a bit there. Personally, I still really like the system, but I think this may just be hard time of year for it as Paul Pro said. It might be worth waiting until August/September time before starting again.
If this was a hard time of year, you would expect to see similar results for this time last year which I don’t think you do.
I’ve just started with Back the Win. Got a winner in race one and then had 4 second places. Won on the 5th and final race in the sequence but still made a loss for the sequence. Currently £5 down but it’s early days. I figured it was worth £15 for the first month of tips.
Has anyone seen his Japanese football system?
The results he posts on his page are pie in the sky. He quotes winning net of BF commission but his odds are bookmaker prices. This is a laying system so there’s the usual problem / issue there.
I sent Joe a detailed spreadsheet back testing / challenging his results. He had no answer to my questions and offered me a refund after a paper trade period.
I’m beginning to wonder about this guy and his operations. He claims he lost most of his historical data in a hardware / backup fault.
There’s just a niggling doubt in my mind that all is not what it seems with Joe…
What do others think?
Nah, I like Joe, a lot actually, Stewboss. He’s made very little selling his systems and I don’t think he’s out for the sale like most of them are. I honestly do think he’s a genuine bloke. Craig likes him too.
What’s the Japanese football system? Is that Ross or someone, the guy who sends out the mailshots all the time? Can’t actually remember his name now, just remember the impressive mailshots and one of those was about an Eastern syndicate or something.
The Japanses football system is on Joe’s site.
He sells it for £30 or similar.
Ah right, sorry I don’t know anything about that.
Yeah, I think Joe is a genuine guy it’s just that the system has not worked this year, and I mean year as he may show a profit on the website, but as has been documented here it misses out a terrible patch whilst he was on holiday.
This bad run takes it into the negative.
He did mute that he would update the results but it hasn’t happened yet, and probably won’t as it really is on a bad run.
It’s also a shame there are no detailed results from the year which made 28k
Cheers
Mark
Mark, I spoke to Joe the other day and he is having major broadband troubles, that’s why he’s not updated his site lately. I can’t remember when it’s due to be fixed, but I think it was around the second week in July, although don’t quote me on that
I wouldn’t stand for that sort of s**t service!
The results or the broadband malarkey???
When I talked to Joe he wasn’t best pleased about it as it had already been a couple of weeks he’d been having problems….I can’t remember which company it is, but I could dig the email out and check
Hey Guys thanks for the info. Can you tell me hat works for you. Is any of the stuff on this site good. I do like Betalay it seems to work??
Craig,
The results are pretty bang upto date, I don’t think we’ll ever see the run of bad results whilst he was on holiday as it would just look too bad for the system.
I don’t want to bad mouth Joe, I do however think the results are misleading to anyone happening upon his website without all the facts.
Cheers
Mark
Yes, I too doubt the transparency of his results.It’s easy to quote,say a 228 point yearly profit for a previous year,but there are no detailed results to back it up.It would be a simple matter,though rather timely,to dig them out from Betfair’s historical database?
It seems that this boy is going system selling crazy these past few weeks,with football systems,FTW ancillary systems, backing systems,tipping services,you name it he seems to have it.It is a veritable conveyer belt of systems!
RE Stewboss,there are good systems out there,I do quite a few,but FTW probably won’t be one of them – I’ve just lost too much from it.
On the flip side, Joe has apparently given up his day job and follows his own sytems for his income.
If this is the case he hasn’t earnt a great deal this year and is suffering with the rest of his customers.
This is obviously not withstanding the sales of the systems, which wouldn’t keep a roof over my head.
Cheers
Mark
Stewboss
Re the Japanese Football System.
I can check past data if required, but the one statistic that the system is based on has only been valid for 2006 and 2007 seasons. The current season is following suit. Seasons 01-05 inclusive followed the more ‘normal’ pattern of results, which would mean far more staking using this system to generate any profit.
I wouldn’t personally go overboard on following this system without finding reasons as to why the results are working out favourably first. Football leagues around the world have a habit of returning back to statistics that you would generally expect after a period of time (whether it is weeks, months or indeed years).
Having said all that, this system can work, but you’ve got to remember one very important thing. You must be able to place your lays every single week of the season. If you miss a week because of holidays or some unforeseen mishap then that could very well be the week that all the results go your way. A few missed games could mean big stakes in the following weeks to recover profits. That’s a big commitment to keep for such a long time.
I doubt very much this system has been used on the Dutch League as the prices available in many of the matches are very high. The anomaly this system tries to exploit has already been noted by the layers over the past few years. Again, it can work, but you’ll need to work out what your ROI is to see if it’s worthwhile. I’ve got enough historical football prices so I may run this on the dutch leagues in the next week or so.
As regards charging £30 for this, well, if you have any knowledge of the general statistics in football leagues you should be able to work out what this system involves
Regarding the results of these systems, it appear to me that some results are being left out.
If we take FTW2, latest results on the site are up to 20th June. On that day, Why no mention of Rose Diamond, winner of the 6:30 at Newmarket? There is also no mention of Deyas Dream, 5th in the 7:25 at Goodwood?
Am I missing something here? Are others noticing this?
Hello all, hope you are well!
Firstly I would like to say that, yes, I do follow my own systems and therefore have had the same peaks and troughs as other users. Those who have started FTW1 in the last 2 months I am sure are down but those who started at the beginning of the year are up like me and I’m sure by the year end will be happily in profit also if it’s stick with. In addition FTW Football everyone made profit with, JFS is in profit, BTW is in profit… What more do you want? System have ups and downs…
I was indeed on holiday during the infamous bad run which has been well documented on here, hence the lack of the results on my website. I did however agree with someone (can’t remember who, but it will be on the history here somewhere) that if they collated the average users results I would happily upload the results to the site. I agreed to this on the condition that someone else collated the data. I have received nothing so have posted nothing. The offer is still open…
@ Francis – Yes May and June have been bad months for FTW1 however FTW2 has had a brilliant June. The ‘lead balloon’ backing system is infact in profit you may be dismayed to hear. I had about 20 FTW customers using it since 27th May and is about £1200 up since then. Feel free to ask any of them to confirm this, I will forward your mail if you like and in addtion would be grateful if you did not give your views on something you have absolutely no knowledge or experience of. Is it not a little unwise to base your views on one system on the strength of another?
@ Stewboss – Yes I offered you a refund as I sensed that you were not happy with your purchase. Frankly I didn’t understand how you came to your results using past data but thought that if you actually used the system for real for a period may realise that it works. You should already have 10 winners from 11 in the last week alone. The offer still stands and will surprised if in a few months paper trading you request it.
Yes I have infact had many problems with PC’s over the last year. I have a burnt out desktop with information on the HD still waiting to be recovered. Why does this sound so unbelievable to you? Is this enough information for you have a niggling doubt in your mind?
My recent problems include trouble with my broadband, network adapter and motherboard, all within the space of a week, though I do not expect you to believe that either, nor do I particularly care.
If you would like to meet up for a beer and discuss anything you are not happy about, I will be happy to oblige. I am not hiding anything like I suspect you think I am.
@ Scott – With regard to Rose Diamond, at the time I last updated the results (prior to yesterday) the horse had not run. It was in the afternoon where the previous horse had run and Rose hadn’t hence no result. I am not sure of the other selection you mention as it is not in my results, was it definitely a qualifying bet and if so what were the odds?
I must say it does amaze me how little length of time some people judge systems by. If it does not make them rich over night, a week or a month then it is obviuosly crap! A long term mentality is needed to succeed with betting and if it’s not going your way, then rather than discard it to the bin, why not paper trde with it for a longer period? i.e. a year. This will give a much better indication and even then isn’t a long enough period of time.
[/moan]
Anyway, I’m just happy to be back! Good times.
Joe