Racing Winners System Review

Racing Winners System Review

Written by Mark Boyle the system is an e-book of 47 pages in length.

The first page warned that only a 20% success rate would be achievable but profit came because the prices of winners were high value ones.  The strategy for betting was laid out in a straightforward manner – the size of the bank suggested was beyond my means (£1,000).

The third page was a list of contents and the rules followed on the following pages, continuing with examples.

Finally, the last seven pages contained two and a third pages of irrelevancies followed by some practical advice and some homespun philosophy.  Thank goodness there were no reams of past results to pad the e-book out.

All-in-all I counted eleven grammatical errors, to me an irritant.  I didn’t like the use of the ampersand (&) intead of the word ‘and’.  If you’re writing a book – write it, don’t abbreviate it or we will forget the language and become illiterate ‘texters’.

The usage of examples is creditable, however in many areas the reader is treated as a newcomer to racing and some explanations are too simplistic.  Certain screen shots are shown and there is no explanation as to how to obtain them.  For those who cannot navigate the Racing Post site not at all helpful.

As I read the rules and selection criteria there was one rule which I will ignore as it involves payment of a fee – totally against my principles.  Another rule states that only two bets a day must be made – no mention of which to choose when there are more than two qualifiers.  Similarly, when a race has two horses on the same score no indication as to the path to take.

I must be honest and declare here and now that I have an affinity with the methods used in this system.

First of all the races it selects are those which I use for my own selections and although it has a wider brief on the types of race to use than I have  it has a narrower set of filters (six) as opposed to the eighteen I use.  It follows the principle of using  data that is ‘live’

What I mean by that is that the data relating to the horses is based on performances.  Every time a horse runs its performance changes and therefore so do the factors on which you perform your filters.

I was initially horrified at the first major rule (filter) of the system but this rule is repeated four times and by the time I reached the end of the examples I was getting quite bored as I was pages in front of the book.

It is possible to make your selections the evening prior to racing but in order to do this you will have to pay a fee to the Racing Post in order to obtain the prices of the runners.  I wait till after nine the following morning when it becomes free!

It recommends that bets are placed fifteen minutes before the race.  Not easy when you’re a worker.  I would suggest Betfair SP at any time in order to overcome non-runners when using a bookmaker.

I have performed my selections for today and it has taken all morning.  The first race took me one hour fifteen minutes to finalise, the second race thirty-five minutes and the third race ten minutes.

They don’t add up to all morning but I have devised my own method of cataloguing the scores for each individual filter hence the ten minutes for the last race.

There are some areas that I feel are weak in the system which I will keep a close eye on and another which has been summarily been demonstrated this morning.  The going.

I awoke to glorious sunshine then the heavens opened and the rain came down in bucketfuls.  Conditions must have changed at Sedgefield as geographically I am not too far from there.  I can’t believe it is Good to Firm there!   If the going changes so do the scores of the horses.  Making the selections unreliable.

I will make my own selections for the races selected by this system even though I wouldn’t normally.  I would have ignored the two qualifying races today.

In spite of forthcoming holidays I will try and monitor the results every day for at least a month.

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Day 1 – Racing Winners

Selections:

2.45  Sedgefield   GF Troodos Jet 1st @ 4/1 SP and 5.50 @ BSP (Betfair SP)

4.00  Yarmouth  SF Osgood  2nd @ 8/1 and 9.51 BSP

The author suggests a bank of £1000, mine started at £102.51

The profit on the first race was £7.52 as the price I bet at was 4.80 for a £2 stake.  The author recommends a stake of 2% of the bank.  The stake for the second race was £2.15.  The loss reduced net profit to £5.07.

Balance is now £107.58   This is a real amount and not a fictitiously generated figure.

The scores I used were based on a going of GF at Sedgefield and SF at Yarmouth.

Both goings changed at Sedgefield to GD/GF and at Yarmouth to GS.  As I have mentioned previously going is a significant factor in the scoring method.   I recalculated the score at both meetings, the result being no change to positions at Sedgefield and an increase to one horse only but no change in positions.

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Day 2 – Racing Winners

Selections

6.00 Bangor-on-Dee  GD  Bathwick Man  Unplaced

6.50 Ffos Las  GD  Hearthstead Dream  2nd @ 11/1 and 13.84 BSP

7.00 Bangor-on-Dee  GD  Classic Clover  2nd @ 5/1  and  7.20 BSP

8.00 Bangor-on-Dee  GD  Englishtown  2nd @ 11/2  and  6.79 BSP

There were four selections and as I mentioned previously only two bets have to be placed.  No guidance is given as to how to select the two or how to reject the two.  As one race had two horses with Irish experience and again there is no guidance on the Irish going equivalents and the class of races in Ireland involves extra work, I omitted that race. (The 8.00 at Bangor-on-Dee).  The 7.00 at Bangor-on-Dee had only five runners and as we are looking for value, I omitted that.  No profit was lost as both races finished with the horses in second position.

In spite of early rain at Ffos Las the going at both meetings remained unchanged.

The two remaining bets were unsuccesful and the balance now stands at £103.58.

My own system had five races with selections.  I selected three winners and ignored one selection which was a favourite winner.  Points of View in the 6.00 at Bangor-on-Dee and I also selected Comehomequietly in 6.50 at Ffos Las.

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Day 3 Racing Winners

Selections:

There were six races that qualified for bets today.  As I can only finalise the scoring method after the prices are posted at 9.00 am, one of the selections disappeared with the abandonment of Goodwood.  Whilst calculating the remaining four races I excluded two more races as the favourite was odds on.  Two more races fell by the wayside because the races had two horses on  the maximum score.  This left one to bet on.

6.55  Cartmel  GD  Devils Delight  Unplaced  4/1 SP  5.26 BSP  Stake  £2.07

Balance :  £101.51  (now making a loss)

I have subsequently re-read the rules and discover that in the event of equal scores the choice is to take the one with the best available odds.  (Whatever that means).  The races where two scores were at maximum, one horse was unplaced at 15/2 and the other won at 10/1. and in the other at Cartmel the going changed and this gave us the second maximum.  Devils Delight came in fifth and the other (Colditz) won at 7/2.  The law that Mr Sod created prevailed!

The going at Cartmel changed during the day but reference to Racing Post going and Sporting Life going both gave GD with GS in places.  At The Races gave a going of GD only.  All factors can equal one sixth of the total score therefore the wrong value has a significant effect on the result.  This sort of reportage is less than helpful.

The calculation of the scores took over an hour.  Time I’m not happy to spend every day.  In order to speed this process up I have written a computer program to highlight the only factors that the system is interested in.  Use of this program made score calculation easier as I have the data in a concentrated format.  Additionally, when it came to re-calulating the scores due to going change I managed to perform the task whilst the horses were loading. (Obviously not fifteeen minutes before the race as recommended.)

My own system only had one qualifying race today, the 3.20 at Ffos Las.  I backed the winner at 7.40 which came in at 11/2 and 6.80 BSP

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Day 4

I received an e-mail earlier today asking how I had selected a winner when the race was a 6 furlong race, as Racing Winners states that races must be one mile or longer.  The winner was a selection from my own system.  I mentioned this system in the initial review when I stated that I use eighteen filters as opposed to the six of  Racing Winners.

Day 4

There were six qualifying races today and as the rules state only two bets each day, today I followed the rules.  No reason is given for this and having been at it for four days it is obvious to me that the rule is in order to save time because try as I might to improve my speed of calculation the method takes ages to calculate.

First of all you have to establish which races qualify going through the full list of races for the day.  Twenty-six races on Monday, today fourty-two.  Having established the qualifying races each race has to have six horses on which the calculations are performed,  There are six calculations per horse.  The Racing Post site is the source of all information and four changes are necessary to arrive at the qualifying race.  For each race nine sets of data have to be recorded (written down).  For each horse there are three changes of screen plus an additional two for National Hunt races.  At the end of all this you have five individual scores to accumulate to arrive at the final score.  The horse with the highest score is the selection.  It should be borne in mind that the data you read is not in an easily readable form just to add another difficulty.

I hope I have conveyed to you the difficulties in arriving at the selections and why I feel that the rule of two bets only is really “save time by stopping at two”.

In spite of all that I did all six qualifying races.  As I mentioned yesterday I have written a program to compact the horse detail and a further program to print  each race itemising all horses in the race and a grid in which to place the scores.  If I had not done this a form as suggested in the e-book would have to be drawn up.

Back to Day 4

Six qualifiers, the first two on which I staked money.

3.40  Ffos Las  GS  Jutland  Unplaced   Stake  £2.03

4.50  Ffos Las  GD  Yellow Flag  2nd @ 7/2 SP @ 5.98 BSP  Stake £1.99

Balance now £97.49

The other selections were:

2.10  Ffos Las  Blazing Desert  2nd  @  9/2  @ SP  6.41  BSP

2.10  Ffos Las  Lady Hestia  1st @ 7/1  SP  8.80  BSP

2.10  Ffos  Las  Tillietidlum  Unplaced

Three horses to chose from so I left alone.  You are told not to back all selections!

5.20  Ffos Las  Oursininlaw  Unseated Rider

5.15  Bath  Deejan  1st  @  8/1 SP  and 11.50  BSP

7.05  Hamilton  Hail Bold Chief  1st @  3/1 and  4.60  BSP

Mr Sods law rules again!

Overall, since using this system there have been fifteen races and five winners of which I have only selected one.  The total points won would have been 32 and the losing bets 14 giving a net profit of  18 points.

I leave you to draw your own conclusions.

My own system of  selections had four qualifying races of which only one was a winner,  West With The Wind at 7/1 and which I got a price of 9.60 on Betfair (BSP 9.20)

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Day 5

As expected there were many qualifiers.  Nine in all.  Only two had to be bet on  so I used the principle that if I chose the two highest scoring horses I should have two winners.

I spent at least two hours calculating the selections.  The last four races took 15, 14, 11 and 9 minutes to calculate.  Prior to this I spent well over an hour transferring data from the Racing Post site.  This system takes too long to arrive at the end.

Having shortened up the time by automating some processes I will now have to automate the calculation process, where possible.  Incidentally, I can produce a score for every horse in every race on a seven meeting day in less than an hour when I use my own system.

Selections:

3.10  Cartmel  Volcanic Rock  Unplaced

3.45  Cartmel  Breaking Storm  Non-runner

3.45  Cartmel  Storm Prospect  Unplaced

4.20  Cartmel  Trumpstoo  Unplaced

4.55  Cartmel  Royal Flynn  2nd @ 5/1 SP and 7.67  BSP

4.55  Cartmel  Devils And Dust  Unplaced

5.10  Windsor  Choral Festival  £rd at 4/1 SP and 6.01  BSP

5.25  Goodwood  Miniyamba  Unplaced

7.20  Windsor  Il Portico  2nd @  10/1  SP and 14.63 @  BSP

The two I bet on wereVolcanic Rock and Trumpstoo.  Neither won nor did any of the other selections

Balance in now £93.63

Of the seven races two were won by horses that failed to qualify for selection and therefore were not scored.  I have scored both subsequently and neither would have been selected.

My own system had eight qualifying races out of which there were three winners.  Front Rank, Axiom and Alice Alleyne.

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There is nothing to report today.  There were 5 qualifying races today and I didn’t have the heart to spend half a day after all the time I have spent over the past five days.  I have not given up.  I am working on a program to speed up the calculation process.

You will realise one drawback to the system is the amount of time you have to spend in looking for the final selection.

Until such time as I can speed up the process I will only work on two races.

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I managed to calculate the selections for three of the qualifying races.  As racing had finished I did’nt place a bet but I will calculate the stakes and balance as if money had been placed.

Day 6

Selections:

4.55  Yarmouth  Starkat  2nd at  3/1  SP and 4.40  BSP

5.05  Goodwood  South Cape  3rd @  8/1 SP and 10.50 BSP

5.05  Goodwood  Truism Unplaced

6.00  Yarmouth  Credential  Unplaced

The bets would have been placed on the 4.55 and 6.00 at Yarmouth.  As two horses in the same race had equal scores I discounted that race.

Opening Balance:  £93.63  Closing Balance: £89.93

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There were eleven qualifying races today and in no way was I going to do  calculations  on all eleven.  I cherry picked three to work on.  Remember only two bets are allowed per day.

Day 7

Selections

4.30 Warwick  SF/GS  Relative Strength Unplaced

4.55  Epsom  GD/GS  Plaisterer  1st  @ 10/3  SP and 4.60 BSP

5.20  Ripon  GD/GF  Dazakhee  Non-runner

5.20  Ripon  GD/GF  Magic Millie  2nd @  9/4  SP and  3.52 BSP

As the 5.20 at Ripon had two selections on the same score I ignored the race.   This resulted in a winning selection, the second in 7 days.

The author claims a 20% strike rate (to date it stands at 14%).  The balance is now at £95.47 from a start of £102.51.

It is suggested that bets are placed ten minutes before the start  of the race.  I find this restrictive and of no benefit.  Today I had no intention of sitting in front of the computer.  I tend to place my bets at lunch-time and take the price at that time.  I could take BSP at any time.

The author suggests a stake of 2% of the bank.  Today I staked 2% of the opening balance on both bets.

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This trial has been suspended for now, and a final review will appear in due course. The suspension is due the unavailability of the current reviewer.