Tipsters To Avoid (and Why!)
If you’ve been around the racing game for any length of time you’ll no doubt have come across a multitude of different types of tipster services. There’s the “inside info” brigade, statisticians, form specialists, backers, layers, betting exchange traders…. you name it, there are thousands of them about and they’ve all got a different angle into how you can make insane betting profits.
As you’ll probably be aware, some of these are good, some are not so good, but the purpose of this article isn’t to expose the sharks in the industry. Instead what I’m going to do is enlighten you on why the method many of them are using to bill you is costing you dearly.
The “Pay As You Go” Tipster Services
I’m sure you’ll have seen this before….
You receive a mailshot with a well-written personalised sales letter, a reply paid envelope and a colourful glossy insert with some mouth watering results for you to chew over. On the flip side there will generally be photos of a retired bloke, a young mother and some guy who looks like a real estate agent. They’ll all be telling you, in “their own words”, how they’ve achieved financial freedom from the opportunity that’s just landed on your doorstep.
After you’ve indulged yourself in “what could be” over your cornflakes, you eventually reach the order page to see how much it’s going to cost you and hey presto, it’s FREE of charge!
All you need to do is place [ £10 | £20 | £50 | insert figure here ] on each of the bets you receive from them and if they win you send them their share of the winnings. If they don’t win, you send nothing. And when they do win, you’ll have your own cash on too, so you’ll be quids in!
There isn’t anything illegal, dodgy, or unethical about what these companies are doing. They’re providing a service and being completely upfront about the terms of your agreement, but there is one fundamental flaw in how the whole thing works and this is it….
It’s almost impossible for you to win!
The reason for this evades most of the people who are taken in by it and I fully understand that if you’re new to the game it’s an easy mistake to make. Most of these mailshots have been crafted by master copywriters and they’ll no doubt have a professional feel to them, but appearances can be deceiving and just because they look good, it doesn’t mean they are.
Why You Simply Can’t Win With Tipsters Like This
If you’ve ever been taken in by this kind of tipster service before, you’re probably going to be kicking yourself when I explain how ridiculously simple the logic behind it is.
Let’s say you’re a regular punter who likes to have two or three £20 bets on a Saturday. You join one of these “pay as you go” tipster services and agree to place £20 on each of their selections on their behalf. So you’re placing £20 for them and £20 for you and it’s in their interest to find you winners, because without them they don’t make any money. Makes sense, right?
The first bet comes through and it’s a 3/1 shot. You stick your £40 bet on and the horse hacks up, winning in a canter, and returning £160 for your cash. Great start. You mail off the £60 you’re due the tipster, keep £60 in winnings for yourself and eagerly await the next tip.
It’s all good, or so you might think.
The problem here – just in case you haven’t noticed it yet – is that you staked £40 of your own cash and made a profit of £60, so rather than backing a 3/1 winner, you’ve actually only backed a 6/4 winner. Sure, the horse won and you’ve got cash in your pocket, but if you think you can win in the long-term backing 3/1 shots at 6/4 you need to think again.
Now you might be a £100 punter and you could be thinking that the £20 you’re putting on for them isn’t going to make too much of an impact on your profits. Wrong. You’re staking £120 and your winnings are £300, so instead of backing a 3/1 winner your odds have been cut to slightly over 11/4. It isn’t such a drastic difference as the previous example, but if it’s your aim to win long-term you need to be backing true 3/1 chances at higher than 3/1, not below.
The larger your stake is compared to the amount you need to put on for the tipster, the lower the differential in the odds, but I’ve yet to come across a tipster who produces a return on investment of higher than 20% on a consistent basis (and that’s VERY good!), so unless your stakes are substantially higher than I’ve mentioned here, you’ll be losing money hand over fist.
The next time you receive a glossy promotional pack from one of these “pay as you go” type tipster services, do yourself a favour and keep this article in mind. If it looks too good to be true, well you know the old saying, there’s a fair chance it probably is.
I hadn’t thought about it like that before but YOU’RE RIGHT! I feel like a total MUG now because I’m one of the ones who has done this before!
I’ve been caught out with this before too. Good point. You live and learn I guess!
Yes good stuff Paul.I was,over a few years sent numerous glossy tipster packages by a certain Mr Colin Davey.I’m sure some of you have heard of him – his stuff contained the usual – premium phone numbers to receive his tips,a monthly subscription package,the usual rubbish.In the bin it went.Funnily enough,I received new bumph from him last year.It seems he’s branched out into the football betting market and the subscription fees etc still remain .Lol.
You’ve actually missed the other thing they do..give everyone a different horse each in the same race so they always win as someone will back the winner
You’re right Kev – we have actually covered this in another article http://www.onlinebettingexposed.com/the-ultimate-betting-system/
Actually you are Right AND you are Wrong. Some Pay as you Go Tipsters are true professionals who care about giving Good Information to their customers. However there are certain people who see this service as a way of Scamming the public, which you can easily do, in any type of business. I personally find the Better the publication i.e. Glossy Brochures etc.. The Bigger the SCAM. But you can’t tar everyone with the same brush.
Absolutely Brian, there are some true professionals out there who really do try to provide you with winners, however, what Paul was trying to say is that while you might get a few winners along the way, you are in effect taking a shorter price than is actually available and when you are getting into that kind of territory you can’t really win long term.
That’s right. It doesn’t really matter if they’re legitimate or not, because if you’re paying out on a per-bet basis at the kind of level I’m talking about above then it’s very difficult to win.
Not questioning the logic behind it, but why don’t you apply the same for any other paid services?
If you pay upfront £50-£100 for tips, shouldn’t the same apply?
Aren’t you betting at shorter odds effectively?
And going furter, if you are paying any fees for the software, bots, etc. you are in the similar situation, aren’t you?
And what about if you have to pay taxes from your winnings?
And what about if you have to pay taxes upfront from your stakes?
And what about transactions costs? Data costs?
Not all is for free.
IMO, it’s just another sort of market disadvantage which you have to live with and accept it.
You can still beat the market if your strategy works and your costs are relatively low.
Absolutely, I agree with everything you’ve said. You need to take all of your costs into consideration, because they’ll obviously all have an impact on your profits.
The type of tipster I’m talking about is a VERY expensive way of doing things though. There is one big advertiser doing the rounds in the UK at the moment who charges like this and the rate is £50 per bet. He concentrates on horses at the lower end of the odds range, typically between 1/1 and 3/1 and advises 40-50 horses a month. His strike-rate is great – in the region of 40% – but when you consider that you’re effectively paying him £2000-£2500 per MONTH, your stakes are going to have to be huge to cover that and still make a profit. For the vast majority of people they simply won’t make any money at all. They’ll probably be in the red, to be honest.
Hi to all .Can I get something off my chest? Icame accross this site today, Saturday .
Does anyone know of a service to punters where the so called big name tipsters are judged?
Just yesterday I contacted a well known tipster,(I’m on his list) , because he insisted he had something really special. When we discussed the deal which was odds 2, he wanted really big money on for himself. He was talking £HUNDREDS. Seriously, £HUNDREDS. His TOP oncourse contact told him this horse today is 10* NAP. Guess what happened. IT DIDN’T EVEN PLACE!
Ok so I didn’t have to listen but he is a so called expert. The very worst thing for me is this.
On this mornings’ phone line he didn’t even mention the result. After using his reputation to convince people to place loads of money on a loser he didn’t have the decency to mention it let alone apologise. Anyone here know of a comparison site? Best wishes,Paul.
I honestly wouldn’t get involved in anything like that again Paul. They can make it all sound so very appealing, but the truth is that it’s rarely profitable in the long run.
You could try http://www.racing-index.com as they have a tipster proofing area that’s very good, or check into our own system testing area….
http://www.onlinebettingexposed.com/betting-systems/
….as we test betting systems and the odd tipster service there.
With these “pay as you go” don’t they give you the name of one horse and another named horse to a different punter??,usually in a 5 horse race. One of them is going to win and usually not the punter either
Some do Graeme
Craig wrote about this on another thread….
http://www.onlinebettingexposed.com/the-ultimate-betting-system/
I can’t believe how stupid I’ve been. I’ve used a tipster like this before and whenever I got a winner always thought it was great. They did provide me with a few winners which I was always happy about, but oh my god, I’ve never realised I was effectively being done.
Paul, thank you for a well written and informative article, and for helping me see the error of my ways, never again will I use one of these tipsters!
But if losers are deductable from future bets this doesnt apply – they are paying you back what they owe you out of the next winner.
On another subject – has anyone experience of Martin Blakey ?
One to avoid, http://www.125bets.eu run by Michael James
Don’t be taken by the glossy hype, past results and testimonials. Basically it is a Stop at a winner system which is well and good when he gets them. To be fair he does get some winners sometimes even 4 or 5 a day BUT he can also get a long run of losers. When he goes a day without winners it goes into a recovery cycle to recover losses.
When I read an email shot it sounded very good as the platinum service was also a bet placement service where he ran the bot from his server so I didnt even have to switch my computer on for the bets to be placed. This cost £210. The aim was to increase your bank by 1-2 % per day. So in a month you could be looking at a profit of 30-50% of your bank. Very good return.
I joined in June of this year and used the platinum service as it would mean I didn’t have to lift a finger and it took away my own judgement on placing those bets. Also those selections were spread across the day and sometimes evenings so it worked out for me. I thought I had found the holy grail. the first 3 weeks was great as I saw my bank increasing daily, Mike answered all emails quickly when things went smoothly. A lot of those selections were short priced favourites and a few odds on, it didn’t matter at first when they win as we need only 1 winner per day.
To cut a long story short, near the end of June, we went a day without a winner and went to recovery cycle. The recovery cycle went a day without a winner. I lost the entire profit and bank in 2 days. For 2 weeks his website was shut down and I received an email from him telling of his new improved strategy and no more backing odds on shots. Sounded good and foolishly I joined again for August hoping to recover some money.
It happened again by the 2nd week of August, the new strategy meant that the recovery cycle is now split over 45 days. My bank took a hit although not as much loss as the first time but I cannot go with a system thats just going to be in recovery for 45 days. It could lose again in any one of those 45 days…anyhow needless to say he does not answer any emails and refuses to refund my months membership at least for August as he has not given out any tips or emails since 17th August.
His website is still there although not taking on new members…but one to be wary off if it comes out in a new guise or a different name.
Stick to the FP system…
@Tony
I’m really sorry to hear of your experience. I’ve had dealings with Michael James and 125bets previously too, although that was before the ‘platinum service’ As you say, basically it’s a SAW system but based mainly around VERY short priced favourites. Plenty winners along the way, but also plenty losers and at those prices stakes increase dramatically very quickly!
I really don’t like the sound of this ‘new’ service! 1. I’d not be giving anyone access to my money, 2. I’d not be allowing anyone to bet for me and 3. I’d certainly not pay for the experience!
I’m glad you’ve learned from it though, and as you say, stick with FP, it’s a much better system