Favourites Phenomenon
Today sees the start of a new trial over here at OBE HQ. The Favourites Phenomenon System (herein known as FP System for obvious reasons) has been a sneaky little blighter. I first heard of it a few weeks ago, before its release, but then all was silent for a while. It was only last week I found out it had actually found it’s way onto the market……and I haven’t had a single email about it.
So, what can I tell you about this FP System? Well, first off it’s penned by Matt Watson, who is undoubtedly one of the nicest guys I’ve dealt with in the world of sports betting. In the couple of days I’ve had the system to look at, he’s already responded in a ridiculously timely manner to any query I’ve had and is totally open about his system and his hopes for the good folks that purchase it.
Secondly, it is a backing system, a ridiculously easy backing system…so ridiculously easy that I had to read it twice, nae, thrice to ensure I’d actually understood it. I thought I’d missed something, that there was no way that what I had read was the actual system, but it was and is, and that’s a good thing!
Thirdly, and this is where people skip a page, it’s a Stop At A Winner system. WAIT! Don’t hit back on your browser, not just yet, anyway. We’ve never fully trialled a SAW system on OBE before, because they are generally a one way ticket straight to the poor house, no passing ‘Go’, no collecting £200. But there is a very good reason they lead straight there, and that is plain and simple poor money management, which is where this system differs from most others.
I should say here that The FP System is more than just a system, it doesn’t arrive on your doormat in glossy brochure form, it’s so much more than that. I am genuinely excited about what Matt is trying to achieve here, he has set up a website that is designed to educate the punter, rather than simply sell them a system. And oh, what a gloriously simple system it is. On my first read through, I skipped straight to the rules and missed out the first few pages. My first thought was ‘this can’t be for real, nothing this simplistic will ever make money.’
I then read through the whole thing, from start to finish, and realised that Matt had actually done a fair bit of research before embarking on this journey, and that he did actually have a good point, and that the system may be better than I first thought. In fact, using the recommended stop loss should see us profit in 98% of our betting days. There won’t be a bet everyday as one of the things Matt is big on is discipline. A quick pre-race check will tell me if I’ll be dabbling in the market or not on any particular day.
So, the system, as I’ve said, is simple, so simple that my 7 year old wee lad could do it, seriously! It comes with a choice of stop losses, 5, 7 or 9 bets (5 being the recommended for newbies). The Favourites part of the title tells you we’re dealing with favourites, and that my good fellows/fellowesses is pretty much all I need to say – any more and you’d have the system!
So, for the test, we’ll start with the recommended 200 point bank and we’ll go for the full fat, stop loss set at 9 races, using £10 per day as a profit target and a £2000 bank.
Below are the results for the trial, followed by my thoughts on Favourites Phenomenon…
Results
Date | Day No. | Daily P/L (£) | Total P/L (£) |
25-May | 1 | 10 | 10 |
27-May | 2 | 10 | 20 |
29-May | 3 | 10 | 30 |
30-May | 4 | 10 | 40 |
01-Jun | 5 | 10 | 50 |
02-Jun | 6 | 10 | 60 |
03-Jun | 7 | 10 | 70 |
04-Jun | 8 | 10 | 80 |
05-Jun | 9 | 10 | 90 |
06-Jun | 10 | 10 | 100 |
08-Jun | 11 | 10 | 110 |
09-Jun | 12 | 10 | 120 |
10-Jun | 13 | 10 | 130 |
12-Jun | 14 | 10 | 140 |
13-Jun | 15 | 10 | 150 |
15-Jun | 16 | 10 | 160 |
16-Jun | 17 | 10 | 170 |
17-Jun | 18 | 10 | 180 |
18-Jun | 19 | 10 | 190 |
19-Jun | 20 | 10 | 200 |
20-Jun | 21 | 10 | 210 |
22-Jun | 22 | 10 | 220 |
23-Jun | 23 | 10 | 230 |
25-Jun | 24 | 10 | 240 |
26-Jun | 25 | 10 | 250 |
01-Jul | 26 | 10 | 260 |
02-Jul | 27 | 10 | 270 |
03-Jul | 28 | 10 | 280 |
06-Jul | 29 | 10 | 290 |
08-Jul | 30 | 10 | 300 |
Conclusion
So, that’s the end of our trial of The FP System, and boy oh boy this one has blown me away! When I first read the system rules and found out it was a Stop At A Winner (SAW) system, I figured we’d all be heading to the poor house – I was wrong, oh so wrong!
This is the first SAW system I’ve ever seen that has been properly researched and is based on sound racing statistics. There’s no ’stable gambles’, inside info or any of that bull, it’s just plain old statistics and I LIKE that! Add in the fact that Matt is an all-round nice guy and offers the best customer service we’ve ever seen and it was obvious we were on to a winner!
I said in my opening review that what Matt was offering was so much more than a system and I still stand by that. His customer support is second to none, and each email he sends gives a little bit of advice and let’s you see inside the mind of a professional punter. Anyone considering taking up this game full time could do a lot worse than listen to what Matt has to say.
So, we spent around 40 days testing The FP System and had a total of 30 days actual betting. In those 30 days we banked a total of 30 points profit, and most days my ‘work’ was all done and dusted within two or three races. Occasionally, I had to play in five races – not exactly what I’d call taxing! The biggest single stake I placed was just shy of £70 and the biggest total amount staked on any one day was £120, again nothing to worry about there — especially if you follow Matt’s money management advice and set up the correct bank. If spending an hour in front of your PC sounds too much like hard work, have no fear! Matt has designed a bot that will do ALL the work for you! It is currently awaiting Betfair approval, which is expected anytime now and when released will make the job even easier — can’t say fairer than that!
So, do we here at OBE recommend The FP System?? We absolutely 100% recommend The FP System as an essential part of any serious punters portfolio, not just because the system is so good, but because of the support and advice that comes with it…
Curiosity got the better of me and I’ve been running the FP System for a couple of weeks now with excellent results. First the positive. Support from Matt Watson is exceptional. He’s quick to answer any queries and his daily e-mail is helpful and gives us confidence in his integrity and faith in the system. Most purveyors of racing systems don’t give this level of support, if at all.
Now the concerns. As Craig says in his System Review it’s very simple, almost too simple. The methodology doesn’t have any specific logic, just the result of research and back-testing. The rules are quite ‘old hat’, and many will recognise this type of system. Success relies on SAW, although with a 98% success rate at Stop level 9, losing days should be few. The attraction of that means that if like most of us you can’t bet every day, your chances of hitting a number of several losing days on the trot are low. The downside is that a losing day means approx -30 points, so at a 1 point target each day it’s going to take you 30 days to break even again. If you bet every day let’s say under rules 6 days a week, (Matt is developing a Bot which may make this possible), profit end of year minus 6 potential losing days (2% of 312= 306). 306 – 180 (6 x -30= -180) = +126 points. However, say we only managed to bet 4 times a week due to work etc, means if we unfortunately hit every losing day 203-180 = +23 points per year. Not looking quite so good now.
Matt states that he can’t send his MPL e-mail every day, which can only mean that he’s not at his PC at race time, which would indicate that he’s not running the system himself, at least not every day. That does concern me.
Finally, the results over 2 years as published look excellent and I’ve no reason to doubt them. But I’m always wary of back-fitting to find ‘the holy grail’ system. It’s easy to fall into this trap. Try this scenario. Take 100 bags of randomly packed coloured marbles. One colour will inevitably dominate over all others, lets say red. Will the next 100 bags show that there is a dominance of red over any other colour? Very unlikely. That’s the basis behind many simplistic holy grail systems.
Jeff.
Is the fp’s system method of picking horses simply the horse that has the highest rpr (from the racing post) and the expected favourite in the betting forecast?
Nice try Dave, but no I’m afraid you’re wrong. And if you were right – we couldn’t really confirm that
Hi Craig
I read your report on the Favourites Phenomenon System. How can I contact Matt to purchase a copy?
Regards
David Jagger
@David – just click on the highlighted words above and that will take you right there
Here we go again. John Kerr must be wetting himself laughing.