Part 2 – A Bet365 Variation

Risk Free Betting – A Bet365 Variation

In our “It Can Be Done” article I introduced a technique that allowed risk free betting using the feature races promoted on Bet365. The method allowed two bets to be placed across Bet365 and a betting exchange (Betfair) that has one of two outcomes:

1. If the horse lost its race then you made a profit on Betfair
2. If the horse won its race then you made a temporary loss until the next race when the loss is recouped by the free bet promotion, at which point you broke even.

The method focused on placing bets as close to 4/1 as possible, therefore your profit from the bet was based upon a quarter of the stake (£12.50 on a £50 bet) and that you would get a losing bet on average once in every five races.

I am going to propose a variation on the first risk free betting approach, which still uses the Bet365 feature race offers but is geared up towards your staking comfort zone. In this approach, you can select a stake that is appropriate for you and the rules about which odds to select are not so rigid. Just like before, you will need to watch the odds on Bet365 and Betfair.

The profits from this method are not huge, so don’t follow this approach expecting a get rich quick scheme. Approached correctly and with discipline you should be able to make 10% on your stake and very possibly more. Whilst making £2 on a £20 bet doesn’t seem a lot, if you can do this on 100 bets a month that is £200 worth of risk free betting.

Initially I will explain the objective of this method and what you will be looking for in each bet. You are looking for horses in the feature race with odds are that are the same on Bet365 and Betfair, or very close to each other. By the same, I mean 5/1 and 6.0. By very close to each other I mean 5/1 and 6.2 (as an example). If you find a case where the Betfair odds are less than Bet365, then grab it with both hands, 5/1 and 5.7 for example (and yes this is achievable often).

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Risk Free Betting Bet365 Variation Technique

What you are looking for is to make a profit from your bet on Betfair. So, for example, take a horse that is 5/1 on Bet365 and 5.7 on Betfair:

• Place a £5 on Bet365 at 5/1 to win £25
• You then calculate your lay bet on Betfair to include your winnings AND the stake, which is £30
• You then place the lay bet to £30 liability which at Betfair odds of 5.7 is a stake of £6.38 (£30 divided by 4.7).

The ideal outcome for the race is that the horse loses, in which case you will win £6.06 profit (taking into account 5% Betfair commission). You will, however, also lose your £5 stake on Bet365 leaving you with a profit of £1.06 or 21.2%. That is 21.2% achieved with risk free betting.

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If the horse wins the race then you will have won £25 on Bet365 but lost £30 on betfair. However, you will now have a free £5 on Bet365 on the next feature race. Therefore all that you are looking to do is realise that £5, not make a profit on it. On the next feature race you will do exactly the same as before EXCEPT do not add on the Bet365 stake to your Betfair calculation. Your calculation for the next race will look as follows assuming Bet36 and Betfair odds of 4/1 and 4.8 respectively:

• Place a £5 on Bet365 at 4/1 to win £20
• You then calculate your lay bet on Betfair to include your winnings ONLY, which is £20
• You then place the lay bet to £20 liability which at Betfair odds of 4.8 is a stake of £5.26 (£20 divided by 4.8).

The ideal outcome for the race is that the horse loses, in which case you will win £5 profit (taking into account 5% Betfair commission). You will then lose your £5 stake on Bet365 leaving you with a zero balance. BUT…you will then be credited with your £5 free bet on Bet365, leaving you £5 in profit for this bet.

The loss from the previous bet will then have been recouped. You are then free to start the cycle again adding in your Bet365 stake to the Betfair bet.

In the unfortunate case where the horse wins its race again, you maintain the second bet scenario on subsequent feature races until your loss has been recouped. A little inconvenient perhaps, but it is still risk free betting because you haven’t lost your origial capital.

The Pros and Cons

Risk Free Betting Bet365 Variation Pros and Cons

As with everything there tends to be pros and cons for this method of risk free betting and I will try to cover the main advantages now:

1. The amount that you select to stake, and consequently win, for each bet is determined by you to suit your comfort zone
2. There are more potential selections to bet on by not focusing on odds closest to 4/1
3. Looking at horses with longer odds, in theory, gives you more chance of a losing horse and profitable bet.

On the flip side of the coin these are some of the issues that you need to keep an eye on:

1. As you move towards the longer odds, the betting increments become larger. At the shorter end of the market you might be able to place your lay bet at 4.8, 4.9, 5.0 or 5.1 all of which will make you a profit. The options at the other end of the scale, 15/1 for example, are either 15.5, 16.0 or 16.5, which means that there will be potentially only one of these odds available that will make you a profit.
2. As the odds get longer the profit for the same differential in odds (between Bet365 and Betfair) will reduce. For example at 4/1 and 4.8 the profit on a £5 bet is 25%. Whereas for odds of 6/1 and 6.8 the profit on a £5 is reduced to 12%.
3. If you select a long shot that wins its race, although you won’t have lost money overall, the objective is to profit through Betfair. Therefore you will have a larger number of bets on feature races to move the Bet365 winnings back into Betfair. For example, a 4/1 winner will put £20 into your Bet365 account from your Betfair account, whereas a 20/1 winner do the same thing with £100. In the former, you will need to bet on the next 4 Bet365 feature races to recover the situation, but it will be 20 races in the latter.

As always, I have to remind you to exercise an element of caution:

1. In practise this method of risk free betting does work best if you can keep the odds involved to around the 6/1 region, but with practise you will start to see the opportunities elsewhere.
2. Practise is essential with this technique and you should paper-trade to start with.
3. When you do come to trade, if you are the slightest bit unsure then start with small stakes.

I hope this has given you another viewpoint on risk free betting. The individual gains are small compared to other systems, but these gains are consistent and involve risk free betting. It is not intended to be a ‘get rich quick’ scheme, but it can and will earn you some decent pocket money. Plus it is also fun, because, used correctly, your capital is safe.

Risk free betting or otherwise, check out our independent unbiased system reviews here…