Mathematician Betting 08/03/08

There was no selections from Mathematician Betting on Friday and when that’s the case I’ll just skip posting a message, because there isn’t much fun reading “No Bet” messages

Guy did have one on Saturday and this is what he said….

WOLVERHAMPTON 3:35 – LINCOLN TRIAL STAKES

* This is a 0-105 Handicap
* Its a trial for the Lincoln in March and last years winner ran in this
* This race has been ran 11 times before
* Exposed horses with 21 + runs won just 2 of the 11 renewals
* Most winners were lightly raced
* Exposed horses that were aged 6 or more were 0-47
* TROUBADOUR – WATERSIDE – MR LAMBROS fail that
* MR LAMBROS and WATERSIDE also come from 7f races and few managed that
* Exposed horses that won were very fit with a recent run
* They also all had 3 runs since the start of January
* Exposed horses that did not run within 15 days had a 0-50 record
* PLUM PUDDING has neither a quick run or 3 runs this year
* PLUM PUDDING has ran just once since October
* This race usually goes to a seasonal debutant or a horse with 2 + runs since Jan 1st
* RE BAROLO is exposed and lacks 3 + runs this year but I can forgive him that
* RE BAROLO also comes from 7f and hasnt a great draw and I cant forgive that
* CHARLIE TOKYO is exposed but has a fair chance at 20/1
* BOMBER COMMAND is exposed and hasnt ran enough this year
* CLASSIC PORT with 3 runs would easily be the least experienced winner
* He also does not come from a handicap and no past winners did that
* Horses that did not come from a handicap were 0-33 in the 11 renewals
* CLASSIC PORT- MURFREESBORO – YARQUS – TROUBADOUR -ALFRESCO fail that
* No past winner had ran just once since the turn of the year
* PLUM PUDDING – MURFREESBORO – YARQUS – BOMBER COMMAND fail that
* There are just 2 horses that pass every statistical test
* These are SAMARINDA and DANEHILLSUNDANCE
* I respect SAMARINDA and cant fault him statistically
* I have to bet DANEHILLSUNDANCE from last years winning stable
* He has been absent 126 days (seasonal debutant) but dont let that worry you
* In 1999 the winner (Captain Scott ) had been off far longer and won first time out
* In 2002 the winner (The Prince) won first time out from a longer absence
* In 2002 the winner (Dayglow Dancer ) and the runner up were seasonal debutants
* We have had 3 winners in 11 renewals winning “First time out”
* We have had 6 horses that were second in this race “First time out”
* Vortex in 2004 was second in a photo on his debut that year
* The 2005 runner up was also a seasonal debutant
* This is a race that Seasonal Debutants have a great record in
* DANEHILLSUNDANCE is clearly a serious runner in this
* He looks handicapped to win and I feel he meets horses with problems
* I feel 7/1 is exceptional value

The price was right and I felt the argument he put up for it was excellent, but the horse was stuck out the back and never really looked likely to threaten at any stage in the race.

Day 3 P/L = -£20
Total P/L = -£45.45
Bank = £954.55

Sunday might be a blank day, but with Cheltenham on I’d expect next week to be busy.