Mathematician Betting 22/03/08

After a few quiet days we had two account bets for Mathematician Betting today. Here’s what Guy had to say about his chosen races:

NEWTON ABBOT 2:25

I feel this race is worth higlighting today. Its a 17f Mares only
Maiden hurdle and I want to oppose BANOO as she comes from a Bumper in
a maiden hurdle. Mares Maiden Hurdles show bumper to have dismal
records. Between Deember and June during the National Hunt season
there has been 161 maiden hurdles for Mares and thats at any trip on
any course. Mares that come from Bumpers have a 0-161 record. That
speaks volumes. The only mares that have ever won a maiden hurdle
before came in October and November. With BANOO I would be happier if
she had less experience but overall the record of these types is
dreadful and the only ones that have won did so with very long
absences and none did it at this time of year. I have to oppose her
and FAIR COPPELIA the other Bumper horse. I dont want POSH EMILY. She
is rated only 88 and thats a lot lower than many of these. SIMPLE
GIFTS hasnt done enough for me yet. The favourite CAOBA has a good
chance but she makes the market for FIGURITA each way. FIGURITA has
had 3 runs over hurdles and there has been some reasonable excuses for
all her runs. She has been fighting inexperience but I dont see that
as a problem now and she doesnt have the drop in trip that the
favourite has. I dont see 3 horses beateing FIGURITA in this race
especially with most runners at big prices and I feel that even if I
am wrong about Banoo and the favourite wins then FIGURITA should still
have too much for every other runner. At 4/1 FIGURITA looks a good
each way bet to me.

DONCASTER 5:40

* This is a 12f handicap for Apprentices
* Doncaster has had 13 renewals of this race but it hasnt been run since 2005
* There were 30 similar races at other tracks for Apprentices as well
* The 13 races do throw up some trends
* Bear in mind the Draw as the last 8 winners were drawn low
* They all had stalls from 1-10 (9 5 2 2 4 7 6 10)
* The start of the race leads quickly into a sweeping turn that lasts
several furlongs
* The low Drawn horses have advantages in that they can get a position
and race prominently
* Others have to be dropped in at the back or forced to race wider than Ideal .
* Horses draw 13 of higher would concern me and these horses do that
* FLAME CREEK – SIR ARTHUR – THREE BOARS – PARNASSIAN – AMICAL RISKS -
PUY D’AMAC
* Fillies in this race have a 0-32 record and the following horses are fillies
* AMBITIOUS GENES – KARMAST
* None of the 13 winners had under 5 runs like DREAM OF FORTUNE
* In the 30 other races no past winners had under 5 starts either
* Horses aged 8 or more had a 0-41 record in this race
* TURN OF PHRASE – FLAME CREEK – PARNASSIAN – RED WINE fail that
* No horse stepped up from 8f to win or dropped from 16f to win
* FLAME CREEK – PARNASSIAN -THREE BOARS fail that
* No winner came from a 3yo handicap like DREAM OF FORTUNE
* None did it on other tracks either
* This leaves a shortlist of 7 runners
* Mixing – John Dillon -Top Spec -Penang Cinta -Calzaghe -Fossgate – Moonwalking
* You can argue that the vast majority of winners had ran recently
* They had either run over hurdles or on the sand
* Of my shortlist only Penang Cinta – Moonwalking have not
* I would argue the strongest runners in this race are these
* MIXING – JOHN DILLON – TOP SPEC – CALZAGHE – FOSSGATE

************

PUY D’ARNAC could be anything and is impossible to judge accurately
but he is not that strong in
the market and I think he has the worst draw in an 18 runner race. My
problem with MIXING is that
this is a 0-70 handicap and all his form really is in 0-60 grade and I
just wonder if he is not good enough.
JOHN DILLON is interesting and was very much a potential selection but
I am not convinced he will get
12 furlongs but he scares me a lot. CALZAGHE could pop up but he is
ungenuine and has downgraded
stables and I perfer others. FOSSGATE has a chance at 20/1 but I
prefer My selection

Have a look at TOP SPEC for a Moment

* This is a 0-70 handicap
* He has just finished 4th at Wolves in a 0-70 handicap
* He was entitled to need the run last time out
* He hadnt ran in over a month and he had ran just once since January
* Many past winners of this race came from the sand and 3 came from Wolves
* Most past winners had ran recently as well
* He last ran on the Flat in September when he was rated 68
* He has ran 3 times since on sand
* He is Better on Grass – all his wins have been on grass
* The Handicapper has dropped his Turf mark from 68 to 56
* He has dropped 12lbs since he last raced on Grass which is a serious help
* In the whole of his career he has never ran in a handicap off lower than 68
* Now he suddenly finds himself rated 56
* The run he had last time was creditable when 4th at Wolves
* The runner up has come out and won
* Today he has a Low Draw which has always been a massive help in this race
* He has a lightweight of 8st 7lbs
* Only 2 of the 13 winners of this race had 9st or more
* The last 7 winners saw 6 horses carrying 8st 8lbs or lower
* All the evidence suggests you want a lightweight
* He has a good rider who is leading Apprentice rider on the sand this winter
* Whichever side of good the ground rides shouldnt be a problem
* The stable are red hot. There last 8 runners finished W W W 7 4 W 4 3

Concerns

* I would be worried he is a bit of a dog but arent they all ?
* Worried all his wins come from August -October
* If you look at his early season form he hasnt had many chances and
has ran well several times
* At 10/1 he looks good to me

Guy advised an each way bet on Figurita and it was subject to a little support in the morning before drifting just a tad on course, however, our fate was known early on and the horse was eventually pulled up. It was a straight win bet on Top Spec who was heavily backed before the off, unfortunately the money for it was unjustified as it was soundly beaten.

A bit of a tough day then for Mathematician Betting, although he did shortlist a couple of double figured places, but as these weren’t account bets they’ll not be shown here.

Day 6 P/L = -£40
Total P/L = £7.05
Bank = £1007.05